UNCTAD Expects Global Economy to Grow 5.3% This Year, and China to Exceed 6% Growth Target
On September 15, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) released its "Trade and Development Report 2021". The report shows that the global economy will rebound this year, with growth expected to reach 5.3 percent, the highest level in nearly five decades, benefiting from the radical measures taken by countries and the successful promotion of the new crown vaccination in developed economies. However, the recovery has been inconsistent across regions and sectors, with the "profit-eating class" in advanced economies experiencing explosive wealth growth while low-income earners struggle. In addition, the lack of fiscal space and monetary policy autonomy, as well as difficulties in accessing new vaccines, has constrained development in many developing economies, widening the gap between them and developed economies. By 2025, developing countries are expected to lose $12 trillion in revenue due to the epidemic.
The East Asian economies are most resilient in 2020 and are expected to grow at 6.7% in 2021, driven mainly by China. UNCTAD expects China's economic growth to exceed its target of 6% this year, benefiting from a recovery in global demand and China's key role in the global supply chain s export sector with strong impetus from sectors such as electronic communication products, medical devices and vaccines. In addition, UNCTAD expects a gradual recovery in Chinese domestic demand and continued Chinese government support for new projects in the infrastructure sector to ensure a healthy expansion of public spending.
UNCTAD expects global economic growth to slow to 3.6% in 2022, with global income levels to be 3.7% lower than before the epidemic rising tendency and a cumulative revenue loss of about $13 trillion from 2020 to 2022. Worldwide, especially in developing regions such as Africa and South Asia, the epidemic is causing more damage than the global financial crisis. Even without a major recession, global output levels will not return to the trends seen during 2016 to 2019 until 2030.
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