RETAIL SALES SURVEY JANUARY 2023: RETAIL SALES PREDICTED TO INCREASE
Respondents of the latest Retail Sales Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia predict annual retail sales to increase in January 2023, as reflected by 1.7% (yoy) growth in the Real Sales Index (RSI) to a level of 213.2.
Faster growth of Food, Beverages, and Tobacco compared with conditions one month earlier is the main driver of stronger retail sales performance during the reporting period. On a monthly basis, however, respondents forecast a -2.1% (mtm) contraction in January 2023 on broad-based declines across all commodity groups, particularly Information and Communication Equipment, followed by Clothing as well as Cultural and Recreational Goods in line with seasonal trends as demand normalizes after the Christmas national religious holiday and New Year festive period.
In December 2022, annual retail sales growth remained in positive territory, with the Real Sales Index (RSI) growing 0.7% (yoy) despite moderating from 1.3% (yoy) in the previous period. Retail sales of Information and Communication Equipment as well as Cultural and Recreational Goods increased, while sales of Other Household Equipment as well as Spare Parts and Accessories improved to experience shallower contractions. On a monthly basis, retail sales growth accelerated to 7.0% (mtm), supported by faster growth across all commodity groups, especially Information and Communication Equipment in line with increasing demand as analogue TV broadcasts transition towards digital TV, followed by Clothing as well as Cultural and Recreational Goods.
In terms of prices, respondents anticipate a build-up of inflationary pressures in March 2023 driven by higher prices during the holy fasting month of Ramadan 1444 H, before normalizing in June 2023, as reflected by an increase in the 3-month Price Expectations Index (PEI) to 139.1 from 134.6 and a decrease in the 6-month PEI to 138.3 from 140.2.
More information concerning the Retail Sales Survey is accessible via the official Bank Indonesia website.
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