秦雨长聘副教授讲座预告
讲座题目：Extrapolative Beliefs and Financial Decisions: Causal Evidence from Renewable Energy Financing
主讲人：秦雨
主持人：贺佳 长任副教授、金融经济系系主任
主讲人简介：秦雨，新加坡国立大学商学院房地产系院长讲席长聘副教授，康奈尔大学应用经济学博士。主要研究领域为环境经济学、城市经济学。担任国际期刊China Economic Review 共同主编；Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 副主编；Journal of Economic Geography 编委会委员。研究发表在Journal of Labor Economics, Journal of Public Economics, Review of Finance, Nature子刊等杂志。
讲座时间：2023年4月4日 14:00
讲座地点：金融学院116教室
摘要：How do expectation biases causally affect households’ financial decisions? We exploit a unique setting and study the repayment decision in solar loans, in which households borrow to purchase and install solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Electricity production – the benefit that solar panels generate-primarily depends on sunshine duration. This creates exogenous within-person across-period variation in recent signals that borrowers observe and thereby expectations of future electricity production. We find that a one-standard-deviation decrease in sunshine duration in the week right before the repayment date leads to a 20.8% increase of delinquency, even though past sunshine duration does not predict that in the future. Survey evidence shows that agents make more positive forecasts of future electricity production after experiencing longer sunshine duration in the past week. We examine a battery of alternative explanations and rule out mechanisms based on liquidity constraints and wealth effects.
编辑：金融学院新媒体中心 李佳峻
审校：郝人
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