Consumption Activity Index
Private consumption makes up roughly 60 percent of total GDP. Therefore, a timely and precise assessment of the developments in private consumption is deemed important for making judgments on business cycles in the macroeconomy.
From this viewpoint, the Research and Statistics Department of the Bank of Japan provides research data titled "Consumption Activity Index (CAI)" on a regular basis. The CAI is compiled by using a variety of sales and supply-side statistics on goods and services as its source statistics and is provided as a measure for capturing short-term consumption activity on both monthly and quarterly bases. The CAI traces movements of consumption in the household side of the economy, much like those in the Annual Report on National Accounts (ARNA) -- which represents consumption activity in Japan in the most comprehensive manner -- but is made available in a more timely fashion. The CAI shows only small fluctuations emanating from samples rotations, and also exhibits a high correlation with a number of confidence survey measures.
Various series of the CAI -- such as nominal and real indexes, indexes with/without adjustments of travel balance, and a breakdown by type of goods/services -- are available to meet various analytical needs.
The data are, in principle, released at 2:00 p.m. on the fifth business day of each month; however, this release schedule is subject to change.
Details on the compilation methodology are available in the following research papers.
- Nakamura, Kawata, Tanaka, and Uemae "The Consumption Activity Index," Bank of Japan Research Papers, May 2016.
- Nakamura, Miura, and Maruyama, "The Consumption Activity Index: Improvements of Release Contents and Revisions of Compilation Methodology," Bank of Japan Research Papers, October 2016.
- Kanafuji, Mandokoro, Kato, and Sugo, "Revision of the Consumption Activity Index to Address the 2008 SNA and Improve Accuracy," Bank of Japan Research Papers, April 2018.
- Takahashi, Kondo, Munakata, Okubo and Iwasaki, "Revision of the Consumption Activity Index to Capture Recent Changes in Consumption Patterns," Bank of Japan Research Papers, July 2021
Research Data
| Date | Title | Data |
|---|---|---|
| Apr. 7, 2023 | Chart | [PDF 14KB] |
| Apr. 7, 2023 | Data | [XLSX 51KB] |
Explanation and Related Materials
Explanation
- Nakamura, Kawata, Tanaka, and Uemae "The Consumption Activity Index," Bank of Japan Research Papers, May 2016.
- Nakamura, Miura, and Maruyama, "The Consumption Activity Index: Improvements of Release Contents and Revisions of Compilation Methodology," Bank of Japan Research Papers, October 2016.
- Kanafuji, Mandokoro, Kato, and Sugo, "Revision of the Consumption Activity Index to Address the 2008 SNA and Improve Accuracy," Bank of Japan Research Papers, April 2018.
- Takahashi, Kondo, Munakata, Okubo and Iwasaki, "Revision of the Consumption Activity Index to Capture Recent Changes in Consumption Patterns," Bank of Japan Research Papers, July 2021.
Background Data
Background data used for compiling the CAI are made public in order to stimulate discussions and gather comments on the validity of the CAI from a wide range of users with interests in economic and financial developments, which in turn should facilitate to improve the CAI on an ongoing basis.
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