“Risks in Focus 2025” – Climate change, geopolitics and a weak economy could put pressure on Germany's financial system
Natural disasters made more likely by climate change, international tensions and the weak domestic economy could create new risks for the German financial system or exacerbate existing risks. In its “Risks in Focus 2025”, published today, the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) explains that a lack of relevant historical experience will add to the challenges of risk management for companies in 2025.
In 2025, companies in the German financial sector should ensure that their risk management incorporates more comprehensive Information on the consequences of climate change. According to BaFin, physical risks such as extreme weather or natural disasters in the form of major fires, droughts or floods could have a much greater impact on banks’ loan portfolios and insurers’ loss amounts in future.
In this year's “Risks in Focus”, BaFin describes these increasing physical risks as a relevant trend for the financial sector. At a press conference to mark the publication, BaFin President Mark Branson explained: “The environment in which companies in the financial sector have to operate is highly challenging because, for many risk drivers – such as climate change, geopolitical upheavals and quantum leaps in technological progress – we lack relevant historical experience. This makes it all the more important for companies in the financial sector to think in terms of scenarios, manage risks wisely and prepare themselves for potential shocks with well-stocked capital and liquidity buffers.”
In 2025, BaFin will focus particularly on six risks
In its outlook on risks, BaFin explains at the beginning of each year where the financial system in Germany is particularly vulnerable and which risks are most capable of jeopardising financial stability or the integrity of German financial markets. BaFin also highlights what it considers to be relevant trends that companies in the financial sector should be paying attention to. For financial institutions, the outlook provides a useful guideline for their own risk management. It also gives an overview of BaFin's supervisory priorities for the current year.
In total, BaFin is focusing on six risks and three trends for the German financial sector:
·Risks arising from corrections on the real estate markets
·Risks arising from significant corrections on the international financial markets
·Risks arising from corporate loan defaults
·Risks arising from cyber incidents with serious consequences
·Risks arising from inadequate money laundering prevention
·Risks arising from market concentration due to the outsourcing of IT services
Opportunities and risks from three trends
Alongside these risks, BaFin has identified three trends that offer opportunities for the economy and the financial sector, but that also harbour considerable risks: sustainability issues, digitalisation and geopolitical upheavals. In addition to the physical risks of advancing climate change, BaFin also sees risks in the uncertainties and costs associated with the transition to a low-carbon economy (transition risks). In BaFin's view, “greenwashing”, i.e. attempts to sell products based on unfounded claims that they are particularly environmentally friendly or responsible, also still poses risks.
Digitalisation and geopolitics
When it comes to digitalisation, BaFin is concerned with increasing cyber risks, the responsible use of artificial intelligence, volatility in the market valuation of cryptoassets and, most recently, the future use of quantum computers. Although high-performance quantum computers have yet to be used on a mass scale, in the interests of IT security, financial companies should already be preparing for their potential application. In the future, quantum computers will be able to crack data encryption methods that are currently considered secure. Criminals could therefore steal data now to decrypt later with the aid of quantum computing. The development of protection plans is therefore crucial.
According to Branson, “Many companies are aware of all these risks and have invested in their IT security. It is important to us that companies continuously monitor current developments and threats. They must also prepare for crisis situations and adapt their security measures. This is what we expect of them. It is also what their customers expect of them.”
In terms of geopolitics, clear trends towards market fragmentation and increasing tensions between countries were observed in 2024. This could continue, with repercussions for the entire financial system. Although they are not an independent risk type, geopolitical crises can influence and exacerbate other relevant risks. The German financial system is particularly susceptible because of Germany's close international trade links and the high export dependency of its economy.
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