As China approaches the end of its 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025), the country is reshaping its role in global trade and investment—not with grand declarations, but with quietly accumulating data. Consumption is surging, foreign direct investment (FDI) is hitting targets ahead of schedule, and global companies continue to view China as a critical part of their international strategy—even amid rising global fragmentation.

For global executives, particularly those in banking, investment promotion, multinational supply chains, and international law and accounting, these developments offer insight not only into China's internal trajectory but also into new areas of risk, opportunity, and policy engagement.

China's Consumer Market: Big, Digital, and Still Growing

China's consumer spending is not just large—it's expanding at a pace that defies global economic uncertainty. Since 2021, the country's retail sales of consumer goods have grown at an average annual rate of 5.5%, according to Commerce Minister Wang Wentao. By 2025, that figure is expected to top ¥50 trillion, or roughly USD 7 trillion.

Although nominal retail sales remain slightly behind the United States, Wang pointed out that China's real purchasing power has already overtaken its U.S. counterpart—a claim backed by World Bank data. He noted that in absolute terms, China's retail sales are approximately 80% of the U.S. total, but adjusted for purchasing power parity, they come out ahead.

E-commerce is a key driver. China has led the world in online retail sales for 12 consecutive years. It is also the top global consumer of automobiles, air conditioners, and washing machines. "With a population of 1.4 billion, any product multiplied by that number becomes a supersize market," Wang remarked.

But the real frontier is services. Service consumption has been growing faster than goods consumption, and Chinese authorities are signaling more policy support to tap into this shift. For global consumer brands, digital service platforms, and fintech players, this signals a pivot worth watching—especially in sectors like travel, education, healthcare, and insurance.

Foreign Investment Confidence: Data Over Rhetoric

As of June 2025, China had attracted USD 708.73 billion in foreign direct investment since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan—meeting its five-year FDI target ahead of time. According to Vice Minister of Commerce Ling Ji, 229,000 new foreign-funded enterprises were established during this period, up by 25,000 from the previous five-year cycle.

The role of foreign investors in China's economy remains substantial: they account for one-third of the country's imports and exports, one-fourth of its industrial added value, and one-seventh of its tax revenue. Perhaps more notably, they've created over 30 million jobs nationwide.

High-tech sectors in particular are drawing more attention from multinationals. Many have set up regional headquarters and global R&D centers in China since 2020, a shift Ling attributes to the country's targeted support for innovation-driven industries.

Regulatory changes are another factor. China has lifted restrictions on foreign investment in manufacturing and made improvements in areas such as government procurement, cross-border data governance, and tax incentives. Since 2023, the Ministry of Commerce has held over 30 roundtable meetings with foreign companies, resolving more than 1,500 specific concerns.

The message from regulators is pragmatic: while geopolitical risks persist, China is still actively seeking—and responding to—foreign investment.

Diversified Trade Amid Global Tensions

While unilateralism and protectionist rhetoric have gained ground globally, China has sought to maintain its footing in multilateral and regional cooperation. Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang emphasized the country's commitment to upholding the multilateral trading system, despite growing international uncertainty.

China's trade relationships are also evolving. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been China's largest trading partner for five consecutive years. In 2024, trade with countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) accounted for over 50% of China's total trade volume, according to official data.

Between 2021 and 2024, China imported goods worth ¥7.4 trillion. In terms of global import share, the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong together accounted for 13.3%—nearly matching the U.S. share of 13.6%, based on WTO data.

"China is a major trading partner to more than 150 countries and regions," said Minister Wang, adding that the country continues to provide stability to global supply chains. For businesses dependent on predictable logistics and diversified markets, China's trading scale and connectivity offer both security and scale.

U.S.-China Trade: A Complex but Persistent Relationship

Despite tensions and policy divergence, the economic ties between the U.S. and China remain resilient. In 2024, bilateral trade in goods reached USD 688.3 billion, while services trade climbed to USD 155.8 billion—up 18% and 34.7%, respectively, from 2017.

Minister Wang acknowledged that friction is inevitable but emphasized that engagement remains essential. “Dialogue and consultation are the best options for resolving differences,” he said.

While the political backdrop is complicated, the commercial reality is more straightforward: both countries remain deeply economically interdependent. This underlines the importance of risk management strategies and compliance readiness for global firms navigating U.S.-China business activity.

Financial Regulatory Signals: Alignment, Not Contradiction

On July 18, the National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA) released a policy statement pledging stronger financial support for growth in 2025. Key priorities include support for high-quality urban development, consumption stimulus, and the development of “new quality productive forces”—a term referring to sectors like green technology, advanced manufacturing, and digital infrastructure.

The NFRA also underscored its dual mandate: to promote economic growth while guarding against systemic risk, particularly in vulnerable sectors.

This suggests that China's financial and commercial policy tracks are moving in greater alignment—an important consideration for institutional investors and international banks monitoring regulatory coherence.