Macro Survey: Experts have revised their forecasts for inflation and the base rate upward
The National Bank of Kazakhstan has published the results of latest macroeconomic survey conducted among the expert community.
The survey parameters include the Brent oil price, Kazakhstan’s economic growth, inflation, the policy rate, exports and imports of goods and services, as well as the tenge exchange rate.
Oil Prices and Economic Growth
Scenario assumptions for the Brent oil price were lowered across the entire forecast horizon. The price of Brent crude oil is expected to average USD 69 per barrel in 2025, and USD 64.7 and USD 65.6 per barrel in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
Nevertheless, forecasts for Kazakhstan’s economic growth have improved: GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward from 5.2% to 5.6%, for 2026 – from 4.7% to 4.8%, and for 2027 – from 4.4% to 4.8%.
Inflation and Policy Rate
Analysts have revised their inflation forecasts upward. The median forecast for 2025 increased from 11.3% to 12%, for 2026 – from 9.5% to 10%, and for 2027 – from 6.5% to 7%.
Due to the higher inflation forecasts, respondents expect a higher base rate across the entire forecast horizon. The median forecast for 2025 rose slightly from 16.5% to 16.6%, for 2026 – from 14.3% to 14.8%, and for 2027 – from 11.3% to 12%.
About the Survey Respondents
The survey included 16 organizations engaged in the analysis and forecasting of Kazakhstan’s macroeconomic indicators. Respondents included professional market participants, research institutes, international organizations, and rating agencies.
We remind that the macroeconomic survey does not include the forecasts of the National Bank. It is an overview of the independent views, assessments, and expectations of professional market participants regarding the development of the situation in domestic and external markets.
Macro Survey: Experts have revised their forecasts for inflation and the base rate upward
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