China's foreign exchange market maintained steady momentum in September, with data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) showing balanced cross-border capital flows and resilient market fundamentals despite persistent global volatility.

According to SAFE, banks handled RMB 1.88 trillion (USD 264.7 billion) in foreign exchange settlements and RMB 1.52 trillion (USD 213.6 billion) in foreign exchange sales during the month. From January to September, cumulative figures reached RMB 13.27 trillion and RMB 12.83 trillion, respectively, suggesting that overall market demand and supply remained largely balanced.

Cross-border transactions among non-banking sectors—including corporates and individuals—also demonstrated strength. In September alone, these entities recorded receipts and payments totaling USD 681.2 billion and USD 684.3 billion, respectively. Over the first three quarters, cumulative cross-border receipts and payments reached USD 5.87 trillion and USD 5.75 trillion, underscoring steady engagement with global markets.

Li Bin, Deputy Director of SAFE, noted that “China's foreign exchange market has continued to show strong resilience and vitality despite a complex and challenging external environment.” He emphasized that the market's underlying stability has been supported by steady foreign trade growth, robust net capital inflows in goods trade, and balanced capital movements in services and investment income.

The banking sector's foreign exchange settlements and sales posted a net surplus of USD 63.2 billion in the first three quarters, while overall cross-border capital recorded a net inflow of USD 119.7 billion. SAFE attributed this to sustained foreign trade performance, improved efficiency in cross-border capital allocation, and stronger two-way capital flow management.

The steady operation of China's forex market carries broader implications for international investors and trading partners. For global corporates engaged in cross-border transactions with China, stable exchange rate dynamics help mitigate currency risk, supporting longer-term trade and investment planning. Similarly, multinational banks and asset managers can expect a predictable environment for liquidity management and hedging operations, even amid external headwinds such as shifting U.S. interest rate expectations and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

The resilience of the foreign exchange market also reflects structural improvements in China’s external balance sheet. According to SAFE data, the proportion of trade-related settlements conducted in RMB has been gradually increasing, helping firms reduce exchange rate exposure and diversify settlement channels. Analysts at major financial institutions such as HSBC and Standard Chartered have highlighted that this trend may enhance currency stability in the medium term while offering foreign investors greater optionality in transaction currencies.

For policymakers, the current equilibrium in cross-border flows provides a crucial buffer against global financial volatility. While external uncertainties remain—ranging from divergent monetary policies among major economies to shifts in global capital allocation—China’s sustained surplus in the trade of goods and its well-calibrated macroprudential framework continue to underpin confidence in the renminbi.

From a corporate perspective, these data suggest that foreign firms operating in China can expect a relatively predictable FX environment through the remainder of 2025. For exporters, stable cross-border receipts ease operational planning and cost control, while importers benefit from reduced volatility in payment settlements. Financial institutions engaged in trade finance, treasury services, and cross-border lending may also find a more favorable environment for expanding RMB-denominated products.

In essence, the September figures reaffirm a key narrative: despite global turbulence—from fluctuating commodity prices to tightening liquidity in advanced markets—China's foreign exchange ecosystem remains orderly, liquid, and increasingly mature. This stability does not only serve domestic purposes; it also strengthens China's role as a steady anchor in global trade and investment flows.

As one senior economist at Nomura put it, “The consistency of China's FX market performance offers reassurance to global investors that the country's external accounts remain well-balanced. In a world where volatility has become the norm, stability itself is a competitive advantage.”