The world is facing the worst development dilemma in more than 70 years, I called it as a human crisis with five parallel disasters.

Pandemic, climate change, food shortage, war and inflation – the five factors that could lead to human disasters – broke out in the same period. This is the direct reason why the world is currently in such a terrible status. 

According to the WHO, nearly 15 million more people died during the pandemic than would have in normal times. A database said that 2022 will rank among the 10-warmest years on record. There is also a study showing that climate change acceleration is responsible for 5 million deaths globally every year. An annual report launched earlier this month by the Global Network Against Food Crises, revealed that nearly 200 million people suffered from acute food insecurity in 2021. 2022 will be much worse. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees reported that more than five million Ukrainians have been forced to flee their country in less than two months given the ongoing conflict, the worst refugee crisis since the end of World War II.

When it comes to inflation, there are more various research reports, which touch upon the situation Europe and the US. Since March, the inflation rate, which has been higher than 7 percent, even over 8 percent, could likely cause an economic crisis far worse than the 2008 financial crisis in Europe and the US. 

There are also unprecedented serious dilemma, which we have not encountered since the end of WWII. Europe faces its most dangerous security crisis since the end of the WWII. The US has weaponized finance and seized quite a number of overseas assets of Russia, undermining the rules of trusts in finance, causing the worst regression of financial civilization since the end of WWII.

More and more people are warning that the third world war may break out. Nuclear war is also on the brink. But people are still sleepwalking. The biggest sleepwalker is the United States.

In response to these deteriorating phenomena, the US, with the world’s strongest comprehensive national strength, and NATO, led by the US, have not reflected on these issues, but have put security at the top of their international agenda. NATO is about to carry out its sixth eastward expansion, absorbing Sweden and Finland as new members. It has also invited Japan and South Korea to participate in the upcoming summit, showing a new trend of the Asianization of NATO. In the just-concluded summit with ASEAN members, the US was still emphasizing security issues.

The US has been stressing its self-proclaimed leadership of the international community. If the US is still leading the world, we need to ask the US government and the White House: Since the 21st century, the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria broke out. Now the Ukrainian conflict is going on. Shouldn’t the US leadership take the greatest responsibility?

Unfortunately, Western media and think tanks, which monopolize the discourse power of international public opinion, have failed to pay enough attention to such a serious situation of human development. However, they only focus on how to sanction Russia and how to support Ukraine, pushing the situation to a worse scenario. This is shortsighted.

Now, what is needed most is sitting together sincerely and discuss how to deal with these crises, just as how the world discussed the post-WWII world in 1945 and the international financial crisis in 2008.

The US should play its role of a great power. As the most powerful country in the world, the US should have a public morality toward mankind. The so-called democratic summits and Global COVID-19 Summit, organized by the US, carry ideological and geopolitical considerations, and it is thus impossible to gain real support from the world. Without the support of China, Russia and the vast number of emerging and developing countries, the US will be isolated from the world, and it is even less possible to regain its past glory.

Only around 30 countries support the US in sanctioning Russia. This kind of sanctions cannot be sustained. It will not solve the crisis, but will hurt the sanctioning party itself, not to mention helping the world.

The world needs to sit together and negotiate. We need to revive the good international governance traditions of the past. For example, countries should reaffirm their commitment to the international security order based on the UN Charter. The G20 as the macroeconomic and financial policy coordination mechanism should continue to be followed, and the WTO, as the negotiation platform for disputes and rules, should continue to be respected. But now, it seems that the US has become the biggest revolutionist in the international system.

In short, calm, rationality and negotiation, rather than restlessness, madness and war, are the first ways to prevent the current situation from getting worse.

Q:

You just talked about the bad situation in the world, so what does this mean for Central Asia? What enlightenment can the situation of Ukraine give to Central Asia?

Wang Wen

Although U.S is still strongest power, US has no global leadership, fewer and fewer countries identified it. We need to have a regular understanding that regional security does not need the US. Since the end of World War II, as long as the United States participates in any regional security settlement process, the region will always become more and more chaotic. The rule I summed up is that if the region wants stability and security, it needs to let the U.S go away. If U.S want to participate, you need to provide wisdom and economic assistance, not weapons and offshore balance.

The situation in Central Asia has shown rare stability, which is not easy. Central Asia needs to develop independently and integrate into the layout of Eurasian Economic Integration. At present, the Belt and Road initiative and Russia's Eurasian Economic Union is in line with the development goals of Central Asian countries. We need to continue this trend and avoid regional unrest. Only when there is stability, can a country have a future.

Q：

The global dilemma you mentioned is impressive. What can China do for the global dilemma? Americans say that China is a threat and step up the crackdown on China. Will a new war break out on the Taiwan issue? What's your opinion?

Wang Wen

Well, China hopes to contribute to solving the global dilemma. China provides the “the Belt and Road” initiative, the global development initiative and the global security initiative, and hopes that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will be resolved as soon as possible and peace will be restored. Over the past 40 years, China has been the only major country in the world that has not waged war and participated in war. It is the world’s largest country that pursues peace. Since 2013, China has become the world’s largest trading country; Since 2020, China has also become the world’s largest overseas investor. These are China’s important political and economic contributions to the world.

We attaches great importance to the US policy of containing China. We believe that the U.S is hoping to start another war in the Taiwan in the form of war in Ukraine. China has a strong will to defend its sovereignty. Just like the US trade war against China in 2018 and the final failure of the US, the US will certainly pay a fair price if it provokes China.

Q:

Does the conflict between Russia and Ukraine accelerate global decoupling? How to prevent "de globalization"?

Wang Wen

My think tank is about to launch a report on Friday called "the great crackdown: an assessment of the new cold war in the global economy". The report believes that a Global economic new cold war has begun. Russia is already decoupling from the West. The factors of decoupling between China and the US are also increasing. This is very bad for economic globalization.

Of course, there is some good news. For example, RCEP has officially entered into force in 2022, and the speed of Asian economic regionalization is accelerating. Globalization is becoming more regional. Eurasian Economic Integration is the future trend. The cooperation among China, Central Asia and Russia can promote a broader and mutually beneficial process of security, economy and energy integration.

As for how to prevent de-globalization, if we want globalization to continue, we must first restore peace. Secondly, as I said just now, we should play the role of a major country, especially the role of the United Nations and the G20. Of course, at present, this is very difficult.

// 人大重阳    

/// 

RDCY

中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资向中国人民大学捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。

作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。

扫二维码｜关注我们

微信号｜rdcy2013

新浪微博｜@人大重阳