Download → Banker Survey Report (Q4 2022).pdf

The results of nationwide banker survey conducted by the People’s Bank of China (PBC) in Q4 2022 are as follows.

I. Bankers’ Macroeconomic Heat Index (BMHI)

Bankers’ Macroeconomic Heat Index was 17.4 percent, down 2.5 percentage points from the previous quarter. Among the surveyed, 33.2 percent bankers considered the current macroeconomic climate "normal", down 4.2 percentage points from the previous quarter; 66.0 percent considered it "relatively cool", up 4.6 percentage points from the previous quarter. For the next quarter, bankers’ macroeconomic heat expectation index is projected at 29.3 percent, 11.9 percentage points higher than that of the current quarter.

II. Banking Industry Climate Index and Banking Profitability Index

The Banking Industry Climate Index registered 65.8 percent, down 0.5 percentage points quarter on quarter, and down 4.4 percentage points year on year. The banking profitability index was 61.3 percent, down 1.0 percentage point from the previous quarter, and down 3.5 percentage points from the same period last year.

III. Overall Loan Demand Index

The Overall Loan Demand Index was 59.5 percent, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous quarter, and down 8.2 percentage points from the same period last year. By sectors, the loan demand index of the manufacturing sector stood at 62.2 percent, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous quarter; the loan demand index of infrastructure was 60.6 percent, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous quarter; the loan demand index of wholesale and retail industry posted 57.1 percent, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous quarter; the loan demand index of real estate enterprises was 43.7 percent, up 3.1 percentage points from the previous quarter. By scale, the loan demand index of largesized enterprises and medium-sized enterprises posted 54.6 percent and 56.4 percent, up 1.0 percentage point and 0.8 percentage points from the previous quarter, respectively; the loan demand index of micro and small businesses posted 62.5 percent, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous quarter.

IV. Monetary Policy Sentiment Index (MPSI)

The Monetary Policy Sentiment Index posted 68.0 percent, down 4.4 percentage points quarter on quarter, and up 13.9 percentage points year on year. Among the surveyed, 38.0 percent bankers considered the monetary policy stance "eased", down 7.9 percentage points from the previous quarter; 60.0 percent considered the monetary policy stance "moderate", up 7.0 percentage points from the previous quarter. For the next quarter, the monetary policy sentiment expectation index is projected at 69.6 percent, 1.6 percentage points higher than that of the current quarter.